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India overtook US to become the world's leading IPO market, bankers expect a $4T M&A haul next year, the yield curve hit its steepest in over two years, and the Fed's hawkish stance sent FX markets off the rails, with global central banks scurrying to defend their currencies.

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Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 12/19/2024 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks closed relatively flat as investors digested the Fed's hawkish 2025 rate projections

    • Dow snapped a historic ten-day losing streak

  • UK's FTSE 100 fell to a four-week low

  • Europe's Stoxx 600 fell 1.5% in its worst day since early-November 

  • US 10Y yield is up 40 bps in two weeks

    • 2Y-10Y yield curve hit 27 bps, the steepest since June 2022 

  • UK 10Y gilt yield rose to 4.6% to the highest since October 2023

  • Italy-Germany and Italy-France spreads are at record lows as Italy emerges as regions' favorite bond market

  • China 1Y yield sank to 1% for the first time since 2009

  • Dollar is up 7% YTD at a two-year high

  • Japanese Yen hit a five-month low 

  • Canadian dollar tumbled to its weakest in over four years

  • Australian and New Zealand dollars hit two-year lows

  • EM currency index is at a four-month low, on track for its worst quarter in two years

    • South Korean won sunk to a 15-year low 

    • Indian rupee hit a record low

    • Brazilian real hit a record low

Earnings

  • Nike beat Q2 EPS and revenue estimates but forecast a longer time period for its turnaround effort, which includes less promotions and returning to 'sport' (CNBC) 

  • FedEx jumped 9% after beating Q2 earnings and announcing plans to spin off its freight business (RT) 

  • CarMax reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings and its first quarterly sales growth in two years as lower car prices attract new buyers (YH) 

  • Accenture surged 7% after beating Q1 EPS and revenue estimates thanks to growing demand from clients adopting GenAI tools (RT)

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

As of 12/19/2024.

  • Congress failed in a second attempt to fund the government, thanks to major political activism by Elon Musk himself. The funding deadline is tonight…

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Headline Roundup

  • US Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 3.1% (BBG)

  • BoE held rates steady at 4.75% (CNBC)

  • BOJ held rates at 0.25% despite healthy inflation (CNBC)

  • India overtook US to become leading IPO market this year (RT)

  • Bankers expect global deal volumes to match Covid records next year (RT)

  • Canada equity deal flow hit a 23-year low (BBG)

  • EM central banks ramp up currency defense as Fed sends dollar surging (BBG)

  • Big year of central bank easing wraps up with dovish BoE, Fed caution (RT)

  • KKR says FX volatility could be market's Achilles heel in 2025 (BBG)

  • PBOC offered yuan support by the most since July (BBG)

  • Apollo says private credit is already halfway to $40T (BBG)

  • Hybrid bonds get hot in US after key Moody's switch (BBG)

  • Activist Palliser seeks to force Rio Tinto to review London listing (FT)

  • Bill Hwang's bid to reduce 18-year prison term is rejected (BBG)

  • Segantii founder Simon Sadler pleaded not guilty to insider trading (BBG)

  • Office rebound expected in 2025 while other real estate sees trouble (BBG)

  • Apple is in talks with Tencent, ByteDance to roll out AI in China (RT)

  • Thousands of Amazon workers strike ahead of Christmas rush (WSJ)

  • Southeast Asia startups missing out on region’s AI fueled tech boom (BBG)

  • Home sales rose by the most since 2021 (WSJ)

  • Immigration drive US population growth to 23-year high (WSJ)

  • US adds to Luigi Mangione's charges, opening door for death penalty (WSJ)

  • Stock market trading is the latest gambling addiction problem (WSJ)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Intel shortlisted Francisco Partners, Apollo, Bain Capital, Silver Lake, and Lattice Semiconductor as bidders to acquire a minority or controlling stake in its programmable chip unit Altera, which is valued at $9B-$12B

  • TPG is in advanced talks to buy tower operator Crown Castle's fiber business for ~$8B

  • Lumen Technologies is seeking to sell its consumer fiber operations in a potential $6B-$9B deal

  • Insight Partners is exploring a sale of R&D software maker Dotmatics that could fetch over $5B

  • The founding family of Japanese software firm Fuji Soft reiterated support for Bain's ~$4.3B hostile bid, while the board sides with KKR's $4.1B offer

  • French infrastructure investor Meridiam agreed to buy a 49.9% stake in Greece's $2B Cyprus and Israel power link project

  • A consortium offered to acquire members club Soho House for over $1.7B

  • Switzerland's SoftwareOne agreed to buy Norwegian rival Crayon in a $1.4B cash-and-stock deal

  • Italy and Spanish fund Asterion made a joint $733M offer for Telecom Italia's  submarine cable unit Sparkle

  • Japanese gas giant Nippon Sanso will acquire Australian farming conglomerate Wesfarmers' Coregas industrial gas unit for $480M 

  • Banco BTG Pactual, Banco Santander Brasil, Banco Safra, and brokerage XP are in talks to acquire Swiss private bank Julius Baer's Brazil unit, which could fetch over $160M

  • UK spirits group Diageo is exploring a sale of Cîroc Vodka, a brand once backed by Diddy

VC

  • AI search engine startup Perplexity raised a $500M round at a $9B valuation led by IVP

  • Fervo Energy, a geothermal development startup, raised a $135M round led by Capricorn Investment Group

  • Smart ring maker Oura raised a $200M Series D at a $5.2B valuation led by Fidelity and Dexcom

  • Aiwyn, a tech platform for CPA firms, raised a $113M round led by KKR and Bessemer Venture Partners

  • Anysphere, an AI coding assistant developer, raised a $100M Series B at a $2.6B valuation led by Thrive Capital

  • Nuitee, an Irish travel tech infrastructure startup, raised a $48M Series A led by Accel

  • AI research lab Decart raised a $32M Series A at a $500M+ valuation led by Benchmark

  • Backflip, a startup using AI to generate 3D designs, raised a $30M Series A led by NEA and a16z

  • AI-based chargeback management startup Justt raised a $30M Series C led by Zeev Ventures

  • Bureau, a fraud-prevention platform for online transactions, raised a $30M Series B led by Sorenson Capital

  • SME lending platform Funding Societies raised a $25M round from Cool Japan Fund

  • Hotel booking platform Safara raised $14M from Sequoia and Defy.vc

  • Bizom, an Indian retail intelligence platform, raised a $12M Series B led by Pavestone

  • BlueQubit, a startup integrating quantum computing into real-world applications, raised a $10M seed round led by Nyca Partners

  • Neverless, a startup making buying meme coins easier, raised a $6.7M seed round led by Lakestar and Connect Ventures

  • Gaib, a Singapore-based financial infrastructure for AI computing, raised a $5M pre-seed round led by Hack VC, Faction, and Hashed

  • Mantis Robotics, a physical AI robotic automation startup, raised $5M led by Emerald Technology Ventures

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Blackstone, Carlyle, and Hellman & Friedman-backed medical supplies provider Medline confidentially filed for an IPO at a potential $50B valuation

  • FedEx plans to spin off its $30B freight unit

  • Fintech Chime, last valued at $25B in 2021, confidentially filed for a US 

  • EV battery giant CATL is considering a second listing in Hong Kong that could raise over $5B

  • Japanese oil refiner ENEOS is considering listing up to 70% of JX Advanced Metals in a Japan IPO that may raise $4.5B

  • Singapore-based V Medical Aesthetics is seeking to raise $200M at a $1.3B valuation in a Malaysia IPO 

  • Sony will invest $320M to increase its stake in Japanese media powerhouse Kadokawa to 10% 

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Bankrupt retailer Big Lots failed to complete its asset sale to PE firm Nexus Capital Management, with liquidation risk looming

  • Spanish state-owned shipbuilder Navantia agreed to buy struggling Titanic-builder Harland & Wolff, who is in administration

Fundraising

  • France-based Antin Infrastructure Partners closed its fifth flagship fund at $10.7B

  • Kazakhstan is planning a $1B sovereign VC fund

  • Real estate VC Fifth Wall is seeking to raise $500M for a new fund

Crypto Corner

  • BlackRock has a new Bitcoin video ad and Bitcoiners hate it (DC)

  • Watchdog sad Sam Altman's Worldcoin must delete all iris scan data (RT)

  • Crypto hack losses jumped 21% to $2.2B this year (RT)

  • 'Hawk Tuah' girl disappeared from public view after crypto rug pull (MA)

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  • Blackstone released their annual holiday video for 2024 and it's iconic as always.

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