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Good Morning,

Hedge funds are slashing stock bets and leverage, Canadian consumers are boycotting US goods, Gold hit a new ATH, Trump's family held talks for a stake in Binance, and Putin is open to US-backed Ukraine ceasefire deal.

Tune in to a conversation with ex-NEA partner Vanessa Larco to discuss evolving perspectives on VC due diligence for this new generation of startups.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 3/13/2025 market close. Litquidity portfolios as 3/12.

Click here to learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks fell across the board as market sentiment continued to sour

    • S&P is down 10% from its mid-February ATH for its first correction in one year

    • Dow fell a fourth-straight day

    • Small-caps Russell 2000 is nearing a bear market, down ~19% from its mid-November high

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is up 17% since Trump's inauguration as Chinese stocks rally past US 

  • France 30Y yield rose to 4.15% to the highest level since 2011

  • Gold hit a new ATH

  • India dollar FX reserves posted the biggest weekly gain since 2021

Earnings

  • Docusign rose 12% after topping Q4 EPS and revenue estimates and issuing optimistic FY guidance on traction in its AI-powered agreement management platform (MSN)

  • Dollar General narrowly beat Q4 EPS and revenue estimates as a store review and closures significantly impacted profit and issued poor guidance on weak consumer spending and a poor FY economic outlook (CNBC)

  • Ulta Beauty beat Q4 top and bottom line estimates but issued weak guidance due to decreasing consumer confidence (CNBC)

  • Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

  • Putin is open to a US-backed Ukraine ceasefire deal (CNBC)

  • Investment banking rebound is set to be delayed amid market volatility (RT)

  • Hedge funds slash stock bets and leverage amid market volatility (FT)

  • Hedge funds slashed Asia bets by the most in four years (BBG)

  • State Street's private credit ETF has seen only two days of inflows(BBG)

  • European fund managers axe 'sustainable' pledges to invest in defense (RT)

  • US leveraged ETFs keep luring Korean buyers as tech stocks slump (BBG)

  • Foreigners snapping up Chinese bank debt may boost yuan defense (BBG)

  • Canada is boycotting US goods in supermarkets nationally (BBG)

  • KPMG will shrink number of country units in global revamp (WSJ)

  • Trump's DOJ antitrust chief is hiring Obama-era veterans (BBG)

  • OMERS named Alexander Fraser as global head of PE (BBG)

  • Deutsche Bank's top-paid employee in line to earn twice more than CEO (FT)

  • Citigroup will fire 15k IT contractors (RT)

  • FINRA ordered Stifel to pay $132M in damages to US family (RT)

  • Porsche will cut 3.9k jobs in efficiency drive (WSJ)

  • Johns Hopkins University will cut over 2k jobs (NYT)

  • US household wealth hit record high of $169T last year (BBG)

  • Undocumented subprime borrowers pose risk to Wall Street (BBG)

A Message from Affinity

Due diligence in early-stage investing with former NEA Partner

What does the future hold for early-stage investing? Vanessa Larco, a former Partner at NEA, will share her expert perspective with Affinity on April 3.

At a time when traditional due diligence approaches are being tested, Larco is rethinking how investors assess the deals in their pipeline – combining a deep understanding of first principles and universal truths with a strategy that pushes new technologies to their limits.

Balancing the investor's instinct with technology that promises to streamline due diligence is a challenge that many firms face. Larco offers a way to approach this question. Learn how her due diligence process has evolved, its impact on the new fund, and recommendations to help other firms strengthen their due diligence practices.

Register here

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Oracle emerged as a leading contender to acquire TikTok US

  • TSMC pitched Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom about taking stakes in a JV that would operate Intel's foundries, with TSMC holding a less than 50% stake 

  • EQT and EQT-backed telecoms firm Zayo Group will acquire the small cells business and fiber solutions business respectively from tower operator Crown Castle for a combined $8.5B

  • Drugmakers Mallinckrodt and Endo will merge in a $6.7B deal 

  • A consortium comprising German insurance giant Allianz, Blackrock, Japanese life insurer T&D, and Italian insurer Generali is close to a $3.8B takeover of Cinven-owned insurance firm Viridium; Allianz will get a 25% stake

  • Industrial and manufacturing company Toyota Tsusho America agreed to acquire Radius Recycling for $1.3B cash, a 120% premium to its closing price

  • PE firm Advent is considering selling Ultra Precision Control Systems for $1B

  • UBS Asset Management is weighing a ~$1B sale of Swiss real estate assets as part of a revamp, with the sale potentially valued at under $1B

  • Trinity Investments and Certares are exploring a sale of East Miami hotel at an over $325M valuation

  • Blackstone will acquire a 40% stake in India's Kolte-Patil Developers for $134M

  • Real estate brokerage Compass is in advanced talks to acquire Berkshire Hathaway's HomeServices real estate brokerage

  • Fintech billionaire Vyacheslav Kim's Kaspi.kz is in talks to acquire the Turkish unit of Rabobank

  • Malaysia's state-owned oil giant PETRONAS is considering selling its 50% stake in the La Amarga Chica shale oil asset JV in Argentina

  • AvidXchange, a payments fintech for SMBs, is weighing a sale after receiving takeover interest

  • The Trump family held talks for a stake in crypto exchange Binance

VC

  • Law enforcement and safety technology platform Flock Safety raised a $275M round at a $7.5B valuation led by a16z

  • Terabase Energy, a startup building digital and automation solutions for utility-scale solar power, raised a $130M Series C led by SoftBank

  • Business intelligence platform Omni raised a $69M Series B led by ICONIQ Growth

  • Medical device company MicroTransponder raised a $65M Series F led by US Venture Partners

  • Blackwall, a startup using AI to detect malicious online traffic, raised a $49M Series B led by Dawn Capital

  • Additive manufacturing startup Alloyed raised a $48M Series B led by SPARX and Development Bank of Japan

  • Bria, a startup using licensed data to train its AI models, raised a $40M Series B led by Red Dot Capital

  • Anyware Robotics, a startup building multi-purpose mobile robotics with embodied intelligence, raised a $12M seed round led by GFT Ventures

  • Independent game studio Human Computer raised a $5.7M seed round led by Makers Fund

  • Aura, a platform for testing and validating AI models, raised a $5.5M seed round led by Daxos Capital, Manifold Trading, and Selini Capital

  • Zero Point Motion, a UK-based sensor technology startup, raised a $5M pre-Series A led by SCVC, Foresight Group, and Verve Ventures

  • Darwin, a startup specializing in AI security and governance for the public sector, raised a $5M seed round led by UpWest and Resolute Ventures

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Bill Ackman's hedge fund Pershing Square and Universal Music Group shareholders plan to raise ~$1.4B in a 2.7% stake sale in the company

  • Samsung SDI will issue $1.4B in shares to invest in a US JV with General Motors 

  • Dutch investment fund Reggeborgh acquired a 3.04% stake in $17B-listed Dutch bank ABN Amro to become the bank's fifth-largest investor

  • Thailand's biggest meat producer Charoen Pokphand Foods will expedite its IPO and listing of its Vietnam unit

Debt

  • Citi and Apollo's private credit JV is in talks to finance any potential acquisition of Boeing's Jeppesen navigation unit, which could fetch ~$7B, including $3B-$3.5B of debt

  • Italian bank IBL Banca is considering a significant risk transfer on a $2B salary-backed loan portfolio, arranged by UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo

  • Chinese data-center operator Vnet raised $430M in a convertible bond sale

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Sunnova Energy, one of the world’s largest residential solar companies, is preparing to engage with creditors to explore options including a bankruptcy filing to address its $8.5B debt load

  • EQT-backed Cerba Healthcare is in talks for a LME for its $4.3B debt pile

Fundraising

  • European VC firm OpenOcean raised $110M for its fourth flagship fund to invest in AI and PE rollups

  • Monarch Collective, a PE fund dedicated to women’s sports, raised $100M for a now targeted $250M fund

  • Investment firm Blue Owl filed for its first interval fund Blue Owl Alternative Credit

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Trump family held deal talks with Binance following its guilty plea

  • Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

  • RacquetX is organizing the largest conference for all things racquet sports – tennis, padel, pickleball – literally any sport with a racquet. Clubs, tech startups, and players in the ecosystem are uniting in Miami Beach from March 22-24 to listen to panels, meet others in the space, and watch top players compete. I'm a judge for the startup competition they're hosting and would love for you to join!

    RSVP here and use code litquidityrx25 for 25% off!

  • Failed hedge fund investors often get second or third chances in a rather counter-intuitive phenomenon and Nicholas Maounis' Verition Fund Management is a prime example. Check out WSJ's profile on Verition.

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.