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Good Morning,

Markets continued to get hammered amid deteriorating economic sentiment and rising uncertainty.

Elsewhere, Commerce Department offered to hire Dave Portnoy, Covid-era VC dry powder is piling up, Latham & Watkins is swimming in M&A fees, and Ukraine accepted a US-brokered ceasefire plan.

Deal teams from CVC to Warburg Pincus are leveraging Mosaic to build bid-ready LBO models in under 5 minutes…it's time that you do too.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 3/11/2025 market close. Litquidity portfolios as of 3/10.

Click here to learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks wavered to close lower yesterday as traders continued to digest tariffs and economic uncertainties

    • S&P briefly fell 10% from its February ATH

  • Canada's TSX index is down 2.6% YTD, beating the S&P by its longest streak since 2022

  • Europe's Stoxx 600 fell to a one-month low

  • UK's FTSE 100 slid for a sixth-straight day for its longest losing streak since September

  • Japan's Nikkei 225 is at a six-month low 

  • Australia's ASX index is down ~10% from its mid-February ATH

  • Indian stocks have wiped over $1T in market cap in four months

  • US 2Y yield dipped to 3.85% to its lowest since October

  • Dollar is down 5% YTD

  • Euro hit a five-month high after Ukraine agreed to a US-backed ceasefire

  • Russian ruble hit a seven-month high

  • Today, we'll receive a crucial February CPI report

Earnings

  • Kohl's plunged 24% despite topping Q4 earnings and revenue estimates as it issued a rough FY outlook with sales expected to fall 5%-7% (CNBC)

  • DICK'S Sporting Goods slid 6% despite posting its best Q4 ever as it issued weak guidance due to economic uncertainties (CNBC)

    • Today: Adobe, American Eagle

    • Thursday: DocuSign, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty

  • Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

  • Bank of America cut 150 junior jobs in IB as 2025 M&A volume slides (RT)

  • US will U-turn on Canadian steel and aluminum tariffs (CNBC)

  • Ukraine accepted a US-brokered ceasefire plan (BBG)

  • Even heavyweight IPO plans look shaky as stock market churns (BBG)

  • Businesses sound alarm as tariff chaos hits the economy (RT)

  • BOJ reiterates that bond yields should be determined in free market (WSJ)

  • Covid-era VC dry powder is still piling up (PB)

  • Y Combinator founders raising less money signals a 'vibe shift' (TC)

  • Private credit push for retail money stokes new vulnerability (BBG)

  • UK is in active talks with pension funds to invest more in private markets (FT)

  • Nasdaq halts high-speed trading service after regulatory pressure (FT)

  • Australia will consider allowing dual class share listings (RT)

  • Latham & Watkins revenue topped $7B for first time on resurgent M&A (FT)

  • Activist Anson will launch a proxy fight at Tinder-parent Match (RT)

  • Commerce Department offered to hire Barstool's Dave Portnoy (BBG)

  • Meta is testing its first in-house AI training chip (RT)

  • Southwest Airlines will end free bag check-in (CNBC)

A Message from Mosaic

Model with Mosaic

By now, I'm sure you've heard of the buzzworthy deal modeling platform, Mosaic.

Mosaic was recently featured in Bloomberg and FT for their next-gen technology that allows investment professionals to build LBO models in mere minutes.

The platform was built by PE veterans themselves, and its accuracy, complexity and practicality virtually eliminates the tediousness of modeling tasks that many of us face daily.

I wish I had this tool during my PE days and I'm not surprised that Mosaic is emerging as the new industry standard in deal modeling. 

Some of the biggest investors already use Mosaic to save hours on modeling workflows and it's something that you must try. 

Level up your modeling workflow

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Europe’s largest gas distributor Italgas received regulatory approval for its $5.8B acquisition of 2i Rete Gas

  • UK investment firm Rosebank Industries abandoned its $2B bid for US wire harness maker Electrical Components International, citing political and market volatility

  • Belgium insurer Ageas & Germany's Allianz are considering bids for Bain Capital-owned UK motor & home insurer esure for potentially ~$1.9B

  • Brazilian transport infrastructure firm CCR is looking to raise $1.7B in the sale of 20 airports and other LatAm assets

  • Power management giant Eaton agreed to acquire tech manufacturing firm Fibrebond for $1.4B

  • PE firm TA Associates is considering selling its majority stake in India's OmniActive Health Technologies at a potential $1B valuation

  • Uber terminated its $950M deal to acquire Delivery Hero's Foodpanda's Taiwan unit after Taiwan blocked the sale; Uber will pay a $250M termination fee

  • Italian investment firm NB Renaissance is in exclusive talks to acquire CVC-backed Italian pharmaceutical company Genetic from Capital Partners at a $764M valuation

  • Charterhouse Capital Partners agreed to acquire Estya, a French provider of electronic fire safety services and security systems, from Chequers Capital at a $327M valuation

  • India's Zydus Lifesciences agreed to acquire an 85.6% stake in Amplitude Surgical for $280M, an 80% premium to its last close

  • Google is in final talks to acquire Canadian eye-tracking startup AdHawk Microsystems for $115M

  • Italy's UniCredit is set to receive ECB approval to acquire up to 29.9% of German rival Commerzbank

  • Abu Dhabi's CYVN Holdings will merge exotic car maker McLaren with UK luxury EV startup Forseven

VC

  • Zolve, a neobank for high-skilled immigrants to US, raised $251M including a $51M Series B led by Creaegis

  • Celestial AI, a startup building photonic fabric for AI infrastructure, raised a $250M Series C-1 led by Fidelity

  • Latvian cybersecurity startup Cybereason raised $120M in funding led by SoftBank and Liberty Strategic Capital

  • AGI infrastructure company Turing raised a $111M Series E at a $2.2B valuation led by SWF Khazanah Nasional Berhad

  • AI robotics startup Dexterity raised a $95M round at a $1.65B valuation from Lightspeed Venture Partners and Sumitomo

  • Crypto payments firm Mesh raised an $82M Series B led by Paradigm

  • Vori Health, a physician-led solution for musculoskeletal care, raised a $53M Series B led by NEA

  • Regulatory AI agent company Norm Ai raised a $48M round from Coatue, Craft Ventures, Blackstone, and more

  • 360 Privacy, a digital executive protection platform, received a $36M growth investment from FTV Capital

  • Infinite Uptime, an Indian predictive maintenance solutions for factories, raised a $35M Series C led by Avataar Ventures

  • Self-serve cybersecurity platform Sola Security raised a $30M seed round led by S Capital

  • Sola, an Israeli startup building a low/no code platform for users to design their own cybersecurity apps, raised a $30M seed round led by S Capital and Mike Moritz

  • Capture6, a startup converting waste brine into fresh water and carbon removal solutions, raised a $27.5M Series A led by Tetrad Corporation

  • Worth, a startup helping fintechs, banks, and enterprises underwrite SMBs, raised a $20M seed round led by TTV Capital

  • Digital estate planning platform Trust & Will raised a $25M+ Series C led by Moderne Ventures

  • Turkish mobile game startup Good Job Games raised a $23M seed round led by Menlo Ventures

  • OpusClip, a GenAI-powered video editing platform, raised a $20M round at a $215M valuation led by SoftBank

  • DG Matrix, a developer of a power router platform, raised $20M in funding led by Clean Energy Ventures

  • Supercritical, a startup reducing the cost of green hydrogen production, raised a $17.4M Series A led by Shell and Toyota Ventures

  • Junction, an API to link health wearables with labs, raised an $18M Series A led by Creandum

  • Vytal, a startup working on a smart reusable packaging solution, raised a $15.4M Series A led by Inven Capital and NRW.Venture

  • ATLANT 3D, a startup building atomic-scale 3D printers for space manufacturing, raised a $15M Series A+ led by West Hill Capital

  • Stroll, a UK neuro-rehab software startup, raised a $13.2M Series A led by IW Capital

  • AI-driven ecommerce software platform AMP raised $12.6M in funding from Openspace Ventures and OneVentures

  • Liminal, a UGC gaming startup, raised a $5.8M seed round led by BITKRAFT Ventures, Riot Games, and OTK Media Group

  • Enter, a Brazilian legal tech, raised a $5.5M round led by Sequoia

  • French startup studio Hexa will acquire Veevart, a vertical SaaS platform for museums, for $5.4M

  • SaySo, a retail clearance and price optimization platform, raised a $4M seed round led by UP.Partners

  • Harmony Intelligence, a startup building defenses against AI-powered cyberattacks, raised a $3M seed round led by Airtree

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Hellman & Friedman-backed insurance brokerage Hub International is seeking to raise $1B at a $30B valuation in a liquid private placement or 'private IPO'

  • Indian EV-scooter maker Ather Energy plans to raise $400M in a Mumbai IPO

SPAC

  • Ares Acquisition Corp. II is in advanced talks to merge with autonomous trucking startup Kodiak Robotics in a $2B deal

Debt 

  • Mining giant Rio Tinto plans to raise $9B in US investment-grade debt at a 133 bps premium to fund its $6.7B acquisition of Arcadium Lithium

  • UK lender Standard Chartered issued a $1.1B social bond to fund EM sustainable development 

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Swedish EV battery maker Northvolt is close to filing for bankruptcy in Sweden after filing for Chapter 11 in US in November

  • UK utility Thames Water is exploring Hong Kong's CK Infrastructure as a possible buyer, should it be forced into special administration

Fundraising

  • UK investment firm Arrow Global plans to raise $4.4B for its third opportunistic credit fund

  • Bessemer Venture Partners raised $350M for an India-focused fund to invest in AI, fintech, D2C, and more

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Bitcoin traders are positioning for volatility as broader markets wobble

  • Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

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We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.