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US stocks tumbled further after another round of pessimistic economic data, with major indexes turning negative YTD and Big Tech stocks taking a blow on the compounding threat of Chinese AI competition.

Investors are nevertheless unironically hoping for Nvidia's earnings today to change the tide.

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Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 2/25/2025 market close.

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Markets

  • US stocks continued to drop yesterday on worrying consumer confidence and economic data

    • S&P and Nasdaq fell for a fourth-straight day

    • Nasdaq and small-caps Russell 2000 turned negative YTD

    • 'Magnificent 7' index lost 3% in its worst day since December, now down over 10% since its mid-December high

  • Hang Seng Tech Index rose 6.5% in its best day since October on Friday, to reach a three-year high

    • The index rose for a sixth-straight week in its best streak since Covid

  • US 10Y yield touched its lowest level since December

    • Traders priced in 56 bps of Fed rate cuts by year-end, with a 70% chance of a 25 bps cut in June

  • Oil fell to a two-month low

  • Dollar fell to an eleven-week low

  • Canadian dollar fell to a two-week low

  • Safe-haven yen rose to the highest since October

  • Bitcoin fell below $90k for the first time since the election

Earnings

  • Home Depot beat Q4 estimates after posting positive comparable sales for the first time in eight quarters despite elevated interest rates and housing prices; the firm forecast a surprise drop in FY profit as demand wavers (CNBC) 

  • Cava posted mixed Q4 results and missed on FY same-store forecasts but nonetheless boasted a 'resilient' consumer and pricing advantage (MW)

  • Instacart plunged 10% despite beating Q4 earnings estimates as it missed on revenue and forecast slower Q1 growth amid declining average order size (WSJ)

  • AMC beat Q4 revenue estimates as box office hits drove strong demand (RT) 

  • Workday jumped 10% after beating Q4 earnings and revenue estimates on 15% YoY sales growth driven by increasing demand for AI tools (CNBC)  

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Nvidia, Salesforce, Snowflake, Lowe's

    • Thursday: TD Bank Group, Dell

  • Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

  • Global debt-to-GDP ratio rose for the first time since Covid last year (RT)

  • Congress is planning a broad review of Fed monetary policy (RT)

  • US consumer confidence fell by the most since 2021 (CNBC)

  • US banking sector profits rose 2.3% in Q4 (RT)

  • Scott Bessent vowed to re-privatize US economy (AX)

  • Hedge funds' Asia stocks bullish momentum is at record high (RT) 

  • MENA region PE deals are set for a comeback (BBG)

  • European block trades soaring even as IPOs sputter (BBG)

  • Take-private deals are shrinking Brazil’s wounded stock exchange (BBG)

  • China accused Taiwan of giving away chip industry to US (RT)

  • Tesla's market cap slipped below $1T (BBG)

  • Activist Carson Block is weighing an India fund but won't pursue activism (RT)

  • DeepSeek rushes to launch new AI model as China goes all in (RT)

  • Meta is in talks to construct a $200B AI data center (TI)

  • Apple shareholders voted to keep DEI (BBG)

  • BofA ended DEI hiring (RT)

  • Unilever's board unanimously fired and replaced their CEO (RT)

  • EV maker Lucid's CEO stepped down (RT)

  • BP will abandon pledge to cut O&G output (FT)

  • US house prices increased rapidly despite improving supply (RT)

  • Ukraine agreed to a minerals deal with US (FT)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Canada's CDPQ agreed to acquire Canadian power company Innergex Renewable Energy for $7B, including debt

  • Lone Star Funds, Advent, and Apollo were shortlisted bidders in UK consumer goods giant Reckitt's $5.1B-$6.3B sale of its home-care assets portfolio 

  • Thermo Fisher Scientific agreed to acquire healthcare company and 3M spinoff Solventum's purification and filtration business for $4.1B cash

  • Blackstone is exploring a sale of its majority stake in health insurance software firm HealthEdge at a $2.5B valuation

  • Baidu acquired the YY Live streaming platform from Joyy for $2.1B

  • Canada's OMERS is exploring a $2B sale of Premise Health, one of America's biggest direct-access care networks 

  • PE firm Roark Capital agreed to acquire restaurant chain Dave's Hot Chicken for $1B

  • PE firms KKR, FountainVest Partners, and PAG, state-owned conglomerate China Resources, and food delivery giant Meituan are in talks for a stake in Starbucks' China business, which could be valued at over $1B

  • India's Axis Bank is considering a majority stake sale in its shadow-bank unit Axis Finance at a $900M-$1B valuation

  • $735M-listed payments processor Cantaloupe is exploring a sale or go-private

  • Norway's Schibsted Media agreed to acquire Swedish telecoms group Telia Company's TV & Media business for $615M on a cash and debt-free basis

  • Quantum computing firm IonQ is in advanced talks to acquire quantum-safe cybersecurity firm ID Quantique for $250M

  • Italy's state-owned bad loan manager AMCO will buy 80% of public credit management company Exacta Group from Eulero Capital and the Oreglia founding family

  • Alterra Capital Partners, an Africa-focused PE firm backed by Carlyle's founders, acquired destination travel firm ARP Africa Travel

VC

  • Quantum Machines, an Israeli startup providing quantum control solutions, raised a $170M Series C led by PSG Equity

  • Crypto asset manager Bitwise Asset Management raised a $70M round led by Electric Capital

  • Metronome, a usage-based billing platform, raised a $50M Series C led by NEA

  • Auditoria.AI, a startup providing AI solutions for corporate finance, raised a $38M Series B led by Innovius Capital

  • Swedish AI app-building platform Lovable raised a $16M pre-Series A led by Creandum

  • Edera, a startup providing workload isolation technology, raised a $15M Series A led by M12

  • Goose, an OS for pet care providers, raised a $13.4M seed round from B Capital, First Round Capital, The 81 Collection, and more

  • Geodnet, a crypto project building an alternative to GPS, raised $8M in funding led by Multicoin

  • Vayu, an Israeli billing and revenue management platform for B2B tech firms, raised $7M in funding led by Flint Capital and The Garage

  • Actual Veggies, a CPG company focused on making veggie products, raised a $7M Series A led by Relentless Consumer Partners

  • Quantum disease detection startup QT Sense raised a $6.3M round led by QDNL Participations

  • Blockchain-based RWA ownership startup Mavryk Dynamics raised a $5.2M round led by Ghaf Capital, Big Brain, MetaVest Capital, and more

  • Fuse Vectors, a Danish gene therapy startup, raised a $5.2M pre-seed round led by HCVC

  • AI-powered blockchain risk management platform Lockchain.ai raised a $5M Series A led by White Star Capital

  • Imua, a purpose-built L1 blockchain for shared security, raised a $5M seed round led by Draper Dragon, No Limit Holdings, and Paramita Capital

  • Floodbase, a parametric platform for insuring uncovered flood risk, raised $5M in funding led by Ecosystem Integrity Fund

  • Climate resiliency startup Adaptive Insurance raised a $5M round led by Congruent Ventures

  • Mitico, a startup slashing the cost of carbon capture using a simple salt, raised a $4.3M seed round led by Exergon

  • German sustainable residential renovation startup dsb raised a $3.8M seed round led by Vireo Ventures

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • PE firm Advent is exploring an IPO or sale of Argentina-based payments company Prisma at a $5B valuation

  • Postal giant Japan Post plans to sell $4B worth of shares in Japan Post Bank to reduce its stake below 50%

  • Tata Capital, the financial unit of Indian conglomerate Tata, is planning to raise $1.7B in what could be India's biggest IPO this year

  • Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airways aims to announce the launch of a $1B IPO this week 

  • Blackstone plans to launch a $733M-$1.1B Spain IPO of Spanish gambling company Cirsa by April

Debt

  • Saudi Arabia sold a $1.6B debut green euro bond after drawing $7.6B of bids

  • Asian PE firm Hillhouse Investment is in talks with banks to refinance an $800M loan that backed its LBO of Chinese mattress maker AI Dream

  • HongShan Capital, formerly Sequoia China, is in talks with banks for a $400M loan to back its acquisition of audio equipment maker Marshall

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Hooters and some of its creditors are considering a bankruptcy plan that would return control of the brand to former execs and the one-time parent HMC Hospitality Group

  • Creditors of insolvent Austrian motorcycle maker KTM approved a restructuring plan that will write off 70% of debt

  • Tesla agreed to acquire assets of insolvent German automation systems maker Manz

  • Hong Kong High Court ordered the withdrawal of the winding-up petition against Chinese property developer Shimao 

Fundraising

  • BlackRock-owned private credit giant HPS Investment Partners is seeking to raise $10B for a new junior credit fund

  • Khosla Ventures is seeking to raise $3.5B across three new seed, venture, and growth funds

  • PE firms TPG and Pantheon are leading a $1.1B investment in a continuation fund for PE firm JLL Partners to extend its ownership in pharma CRO firm Solvias

  • Tech PE firm Thoma Bravo closed its first European software buyout fund at $1.9B

  • AI startup Perplexity is raising a $50M pre-seed/seed fund to invest in AI startups 

  • Singapore SWF GIC and Liechtenstein family office LGT Capital Partners are in talks to finance a continuation fund for JLL Partners to extend its ownership in law-enforcement protection goods supplier Valeron

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • SEC ended its probe into DeFi firm Uniswap Labs

  • Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

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