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Good Morning,

Majority of CFOs expect a recession this year, Robinhood set its eyes on banking, HSBC conducted the most ruthless job cuts ever, US may use tariffs to negotiate a TikTok deal, average Wall Street bonuses hit a record high, and investments banks are suddenly looking at layoffs amid rising uncertainty.

Tune in to a conversation with ex-NEA partner Vanessa Larco to discuss evolving perspectives on VC due diligence for this new generation of startups.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 3/26/2025 market close.

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Markets

  • US stocks sunk again yesterday as US confirmed tariffs on auto imports

    • S&P snapped a three-day win streak

  • Dollar hit a three week high versus euro

Earnings

  • Dollar Tree beat Q4 earnings estimates and gave positive guidance on strong demand from higher-income shoppers and optimism that price hikes and supplier negotiations may offset tariff effects; the firm also announced a $1B sale of Family Dollar (CNBC)

  • Jefferies missed Q1 earnings and revenue estimates as geopolitical uncertainty hit IB and capital markets revenue (BBG) 

  • Chewy beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates amid strong demand growth in the pets industry (MW)

    • Today: lululemon

  • Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

  • US announced 25% tariffs on auto imports (WSJ)

  • IB fees slid 6% in Q1 with job cuts expected (RT)

  • Wall Street banker bonuses rose 32% to an ATH last year (BBG)

  • HSBC fired bankers on bonus day and gave them no bonuses (FT)

  • US risks default by August without debt-ceiling action (RT)

  • Over half of CFOs expect recession in H2 2025 (CNBC) 

  • China industrial profits fell YTD through February (BBG)

  • US 5Y Treasury is the go-to for Wall Street's risk averse (BBG)

  • Commodity traders complain about Trump 'tweet-driven' uncertainty (FT)

  • Largest EM ETF sees record outflows as China gains (BBG)

  • China raised record $200B in bonds YTD in stimulus signal (BBG)

  • Chinese regulators open path to IPO revival in mainland market (FT)

  • US may give China tariff concessions to get TikTok deal done (RT)

  • Active ETFs AUM hit $1T (BBG)

  • BlackRock's Panama deal will proceed despite China's concerns (BBG)

  • Robinhood moves past meme stocks with eyes set on banking (BBG)

  • UBS offered concessions to broker Swiss capital compromise (RT)

  • Activist Starboard nominated three including self to Autodesk's board (RT)

  • Phillips 66 nominated four to board amid battle with activist Elliott (RT)

  • CoreWeave triggered defaults after breaching terms on Blackstone loan (FT)

  • OpenAI expects to be cash flow negative till 2029 (BBG)

  • Janet Yellen will join PIMCO's advisory board (CNBC)

  • Hillhouse poached two Blackstone MDs for heads of Japan real estate (RT)

  • Ex-Intel CEO Gelsinger joined VC Playground Global (RT)

  • JPMorgan quantum experiment generated truly random numbers (BBG)

  • Tesla will launch in Saudi Arabia as Musk mends relations (RT)

  • UnitedHealth removed mention of DEI from website (TC)

  • Car repos surged to the highest level since 2009 last year (BBG)

  • Porsche family office eyes defense as third 'core investment' (FT)

  • TikTok-founder Zhang Yiming became China's richest man (BBG)

A Message from Affinity

Due diligence in early-stage investing with former NEA Partner

What does the future hold for early-stage investing? Vanessa Larco, a former Partner at NEA, will share her expert perspective with Affinity on April 3.

At a time when traditional due diligence approaches are being tested, Larco is rethinking how investors assess the deals in their pipeline – combining a deep understanding of first principles and universal truths with a strategy that pushes new technologies to their limits.

Balancing the investor's instinct with technology that promises to streamline due diligence is a challenge that many firms face. Larco offers a way to approach this question. Learn how her due diligence process has evolved, its impact on the new fund, and recommendations to help other firms strengthen their due diligence practices.

Register Here

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities offered to take Chinese gas distributor ENN Energy private for $11.6B, a 35% premium to its last close

  • PAI Partners and Bain Capital are considering bids for Nestle's water business, which could be valued at $5.4B

  • Insight Partners is exploring a sale of retail software firm PDI Technologies for over $4.5B

  • Real estate analytics firm CoStar raised its bid for Domain Holdings Australia by 5.5% to ~$1.8B

  • Brigade Capital and Macellum Capital will acquire Family Dollar from Dollar Tree for ~$1B

  • MFE-MediaForEurope launched a ~$1B cash-and-stock tender offer to increase its control in Germany's ProSiebenSat.1 Media

  • BP is considering selling up to 50% stakes in its two biggest Gulf of America projects

  • Canada's Dollarama agreed to acquire Australian discount retailer Reject Shop for $163M, an over 100% premium

  • Xerox will acquire printing and software maker Lexmark International II from China's Ninestar for a $75M-$150M

  • South African state bank Industrial Development Corp. is considering acquiring a majority stake in ArcelorMittal South Africa to prevent critical shutdowns

  • Elliott held talks with PE firms to gauge interest in buying German pharma giant Bayer's consumer health business

VC

  • OpenAI is close to finalizing a $40B funding round led by SoftBank and including Magnetar Capital, Coatue, Founders Fund and Altimeter

  • Chinese EV truck startup Windrose now aims to raise $300M in a pre-IPO round as it prepares for a $400M US IPO this year

  • Digital banking startup Mercury raised a $300M Series C at a $3.5B valuation led by Sequoia

  • Enterprise browser startup Island raised a $250M Series E at a $4.85B valuation led by Coatue

  • Blue Origin-rival Axiom Space is in advanced talks to raise over $100M at a $2B pre-money valuation co-led by 1789 Capital and Type One Ventures

  • Spanish space tech company Sateliot raised a $75M Series B led by Hyperion Fund

  • Sports gaming startup Underdog raised a $70M Series C at a $1.225B pre-money valuation led by Spark Capital

  • GravitHy, a French startup building a low-carbon iron producer for the clean steel sector, raised a $64M round from Japan Hydrogen Fund, Ecolab, Rio Tinto, Siemens, and others

  • GetReal, an AI startup detecting deep fakes, raised $17.5M in a Series A led by Forgepoint Capital

  • Workforce optimization platform Jolly raised a $16.5M Series A led by ex-Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn

  • Cybersecurity startup Strike raised a $13.5M Series A led by FinTech Collective

  • XGS Energy, a developer of next-gen geothermal power projects, raised a $13M round from Aligned Climate Capital, ClearSky, and others

  • Contoro Robotics, a developer of AI-powered trailer and container unloading robots, raised a $12M Series A from Doosan, Coupang, Amazon, and more

  • Topanga, a startup helping kitchens reduce waste, raised an $8M Series A led by Blue Bear Capital

  • SplxAI, a platform to secure agentic AI systems, raised a $7M seed round led by LAUNCHub Ventures 

  • AI-based voice recognition startup ai|coustics raised a $5.4M seed round led by Partech

  • Specter automation, a startup focussed on 3D site management, raised a $5M seed round from Shilling VC, Almaz Capital, and PAWAO

  • Hook, a platform where users can legally remix songs by top musicians while earning income, raised $3M from Khosla Ventures, Kygo’s Palm Tree Crew, and The Raine Group

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Chat platform Discord, last valued at $14.7B in 2021, plans to IPO this year

  • Volkswagen is exploring a listing or stake sale for its MAN Energy Solutions unit at a $5.4B valuation

  • EV maker Rivian spun out micromobility startup Also with a $105M raise from Eclipse

  • Elliott built a stake in Japan's Sumitomo Realty & Development 

SPAC

  • Nuclear reactor company Terrestrial Energy will merge with HCM II Acquisition Corp. at a ~$1B valuation, including debt

Debt

  • Singaporean ride and delivery firm Grab is negotiating a $2B loan to finance its potential takeover of Indonesia-based rival GoTo

  • Ivory Coast's $1.75B Eurobond sale drew 2x demand

  • GameStop is seeking to raise $1.3B in a convertible bond sale to finance Bitcoin buying

  • Deutsche Bank is gauging interest for a $200M loan to support Blackstone's ~$500M bid for Trans Maldivian Airways

Fundraising

  • Olympus Partners closed its eight PE fund at $3.5B 

  • Asian investment firm PAG raised $1.25B for its third significant risk transfer fund

  • Madison Dearborn is seeking to raise $3B for its ninth fund, its smallest to-date

  • Brian O'Malley is seeking to raise a $100M debut fund for his new VC Tactile to invest in consumer

  • UK secondaries investor Coller Capital launched two secondary feeder funds in Australia

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • BlackRock debuted a Bitcoin ETP in Europe

  • Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

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We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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