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Good Morning,

The Halloween festivities started slightly early this year with a stock market clappening on Friday. Hopefully the scaries don't last too long. Unless you're short the AI trade of course…

Halloween costume wasn't enough to find you love? There's still a chance to join us at our second edition of Off-Market. We're accepting a couple more all-stars for our singles lineup, and closing the list by EOD. Cuffing season is right around the corner. RSVP info below 👀

Polymarket recently launched Polymarket Institutional Research, a publication exploring the intersection of prediction markets with the global financial system. It's proprietary research straight from their institutional desk with super valuable insights for public market investors. Your firm can request access here.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 10/30/2026 market close.

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Markets

  • US stocks wiped out $1.8T in value after poor Big Tech earnings and massive AI Capex forecasts sparked a historic selloff

    • Nasdaq-100 entered its third correction this year after falling 3.5% in its worst day since June and posting its worst month since March 2025

  • Canada's TSX index fell 1.7% in its worst day since June

  • Gold fell 7% in its worst October since 2008

  • Iron ore posted its seventh monthly loss this year for its lowest month-end close since 2022

  • Euro fell 2% versus pound in its worst month since 2022 on French woes

Earnings

  • Chevron posted its fourth-best earnings in firm history on the back of high oil prices and record US refining margins (CNBC)

  • ExxonMobil also beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates amid disruption in energy markets from the Russia-Ukraine war and US-Iran war (WSJ)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Apple, Palantir

    • Tuesday: AMD, Supermicro, Apollo, Shopify

    • Wednesday: Qualcomm, Uber, Novo, McDonald's, CAVA, CVS

    • Thursday: Iren, Airbnb

  • Full calendar here 

Prediction Markets

  • Priced in?

  • Sign up to trade on the Polymarket US app with code LIT and they'll send you a $25 bonus

Headline Roundup

  • Big Tech returns smallest share of cash to shareholders in 15 years (RT)

  • Apple overtook Nvidia as world's most valuable company (BBG)

  • US Treasury borrowed a record $839B in auctions last week (BBG)

  • China is exploring more stock market stimulus (BBG)

  • India was the world's top IPO market in October (BBG)

  • Junk debt rout sparks 'bloodbath' for credit investors (FT)

  • Bond investors sit out 'most consequential' midterm elections in years (FT)

  • Wall Street is starting to call the shots in America's AI build-out (WSJ)

  • AI investors are racing to get insurance on market bets (WSJ)

  • AI boom drives jump in lending but bankers are still cautious (WSJ)

  • Data centers vow to step up disclosures to local communities (BBG)

  • ETF managers find loopholes to offer concentrated funds (WSJ)

  • Meta builds humanoid robot with Chinese startup Fourier (TI)

  • Sam Altman says it's wasteful to have RAM for your own PC (IGN)

  • Polymarket piled on media deals ahead of midterms (BBG)

  • PE is boosting Republicans over Democrats in midterms (BBG)

  • Kimi Antonelli becomes youngest-ever F1 world champion (ESPN)

A Message from Polymarket

Polymarket Institutional Research is a new publication exploring the intersection of Polymarket with the global financial system – original analysis built directly on our markets, written by the Institutional Desk. From Anthropic's valuation strip, to the Hormuz reopening gap, to the future of Lagarde at the ECB.

If your financial institution is looking to engage with event contracts, the Polymarket Institutional Desk is scaling up. For information on block trades, market making, and commercial data sales on either our US or international exchanges, reach out below.

What's inside:

  • Weekly market briefings

  • Deep dives on forecast scenarios and LP opportunities

  • Quarterly liquidity & microstructure reports with full depth data

  • Direct access to our research team via dedicated Slack

Request access to Polymarket Institutional Research.

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

  • PE firms CD&R and GTCR are exploring an LBO of $25B-listed payments processor Global Payments

  • Spanish transport company Autobuses ​de Leon offered to acquire UK coach and rail services company Mobico for $3.1B, including debt, at a 55% premium

  • Dutch retail chain Ahold Delhaize will acquire the Czech and Slovakia business of UK supermarket chain Tesco at a $2B enterprise valuation

  • Gencom and White Bridge Capital acquired the InterContinental hotel in Miami from a Chinese entity for $300M

  • Activist hedge fund Fund 1 Investments is looking to take-private Xponential Fitness, the $220M-listed owner of Club Pilates and Pure Barre brands, at an 87% premium

  • Snacks giant Mondelez International will acquire a majority stake in healthy snacks maker Undercover Snacks 

  • ExxonMobil increased its stake in the planned Rovuma LNG gas project in Mozambique from 25% to 50% after a swap with Italian energy giant Eni

  • QHP Capital acquired digital clinical trial patient recruiter AutoCruitment

  • Activist Oasis Management is pressuring Vail Resorts to sell some mountain assets

VC

  • OpenAI is now seeking to raise a lower $20B at a lower $1.25T valuation in its final pre-IPO round

  • Baseten, an AI inference company, is in talks to raise a $2B round at a $30B valuation led by Sands Capital 

  • UK chip startup Fractile raised $772M Series C at a $6.4B valuation

  • Dulo, an AI startup building foundation models for engineering and hardware design, raised a $130M seed round from Marc Benioff, John Doerr, Eric Schmidt, Lowercarbon Capital, and others

  • PowerLattice, a chip startup that cuts power demands of AI processors, raised $86M of a planned $111M funding round 

  • Solink, a company turning business camera infrastructure into AI vision intelligence, raised $100M in new financing led by Vertu Capital 

  • &Truth, a universal verification machine for code, raised a $70M seed round 

  • Phase, an operating-layer startup for the AI agent economy, raised $45M in founder funding 

  • AvalonX, an AI-powered offensive security startup, raised $10M in funding from Ridown Capital

  • Audio Chateau Records, a music label and content/partnership studio, raised a $9M Series A from CW Ventures 

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Portugal is exploring raising its 8% stake in $16B-listed oil company Galp Energia after the collapse ​of merger talks with Spain's Moeve

  • Portugal's state holding company Parpublica bought a 5.3% stake in $2.6B-listed power and gas ​grid operator REN from insurer Fidelidade, which is controlled by Chinese conglomerate ​Fosun

  • SoftBank-backed Nigerian fintech Opay withdrew its $304M US IPO after a regulatory inquiry

  • I&I-focused Bambusa Therapeutics raised $160M for a $765M market cap in its IPO

  • Biotech Aspen Neuroscience raised $140M for a $433M market cap in its IPO

  • Iceland's main tourist attraction Blue Lagoon plans to raise $112M in an Iceland IPO

SPAC / SPV

  • Humanoid robotics maker Agility Robotics will merge with Churchill Capital Corp XI to raise a lower $465M

Debt

  • Commodities giant Trafigura signed a $1.5B loan to back a five-year gas supply contract with SEFE

  • Kyrgyzstan is planning a debut yuan bond sale after it raised $700M in its first eurobond sale in 2025

  • Lenders to Partners Group-backed Iberian agri products maker Rovensa are looking to offload debt at a discount as the firm burns through cash 

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • A US bankruptcy judge allowed chatbot platform Character.AI to proceed with a sale of its assets to Disney despite objections from state AGs

Funds / Secondaries

  • Quant-focused hedge fund Xantium plans to spinout from hedge fund Tudor Group with a record $9B in AUM

  • QHP Capital raised a $2.1B CV for Azurity Pharmaceuticals led by HarbourVest Partners

  • Credit hedge fund Arini sold off $800M in debt due to margin calls after dropping 20% YTD

  • Second Alpha raised $170M for its fifth secondaries PE fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • CZ tells Musk 'bad time to troll' after record Binance hack

  • Binance sees spike in withdrawals after resuming transactions

  • Binance covered $6B of $6.3B stolen in hack

  • Crypto exchanges call for quick moves to bolster defenses after Binance heist

  • 50 US companies now oppose having their stocks tokenized

  • Uber joined HSBC and Franklin Templeton in blockchain investing test

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Lit's Picks

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.