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Evercore overtook Morgan Stanley in dealmaking for the first time ever, Trump wants to end the carried interest loophole, US M&A had its worst January in a decade, Bill Ackman built a $2B stake in Uber, and Eagles dominated the Chiefs to win Super Bowl LIX…but the real winners were probably betting markets who saw record legal betting activity.

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Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 2/7/2025 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks fell on Friday as investors reacted to Trump's trade war escalation 

    • All three major indexes ended the week lower

  • Canada's TSX index broke a three-week win streak

  • Chinese tech stocks entered a bull market on a DeepSeek frenzy

  • Japan 10Y yields rose to 1.3% to the highest since 2011

  • The Litquidity Pilot Portfolios are live on Autopilot! Click here to learn more and subscribe to the Litquidity strategies.*

Earnings

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: McDonald's

    • Tuesday: Supermicro, Shopify, Coca-Cola, DoorDash, Carlyle

    • Wednesday: Reddit, Cisco, CVS, Robinhood

    • Thursday: Coinbase, Airbnb, DraftKings

    • Friday: Moderna

  • Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

  • Record Super Bowl betting is expected to lift gambling stocks (BBG)

  • US M&A suffers worst January in a decade amid Trump volatility (FT)

  • Evercore and JPMorgan overtook Morgan Stanley in M&A fees (FT) 

  • US unemployment rate dropped to 4%, the lowest since May (CNBC)

  • US is planning reciprocal tariffs on numerous countries this week (RT)

  • Treasury has used over 60% of debt-cap special measures (BBG)

  • Tight CDS spreads remain unchanged despite tariff threats (BBG)

  • Trump wants to end popular PE 'carried interest loophole' (CNBC)

  • Hedge funds slam 'enormous burden' of Europe ESG requirements (BBG)

  • Europe companies warn of uncertainty from US tariff threats (FT)

  • DOGE is going after CFPB (RT)

  • China's January bank lending surged, but demand still fragile (RT)

  • Chinese gold buyers forced to sidelines as prices near $3k (BBG)

  • Front-runners skim gains on US pension fund trades, study finds (FT)

  • Activist campaign a wake-up call for 'complacent' investment trusts (FT)

  • Bank of America raised CEO Brian Moynihan's pay by 21% to $35M (RT)

  • Accenture scrapped DEI goals (FT)

  • Netflix is weighing a bid for F1's US broadcast rights (RT)

  • France unveiled a $110B AI investment plan (FT)

  • Half of private sector workers now participate in 401(k)s (WSJ)

  • UK sees toughest conditions in job market since Covid (FT)

  • New Zealand will loosen visa rules to lure foreign investors (RT)

  • Eagles steamrolled Chiefs to win Super Bowl LIX (ESPN)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Elon Musk ruled out a bid for TikTok US

  • Japan's Nippon Steel will 'invest' in US Steel after US blocked its $14.1B acquisition

  • PE firm Veritas Capital is in talks to acquire $5B-listed business data and analytics provider Dun & Bradstreet

  • Software-focused PE firm Turn/River will take SolarWinds private in a $4.4B deal, including debt

  • Bain Capital agreed to acquire Mitsubishi Chemical Group's pharmaceutical unit Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma for $3.3B

  • $2.9B-listed German drugs packaging maker Gerresheimer is exploring a sale after receiving PE interest

  • Japan's Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance agreed to acquire UK financial services firm Legal & General's US insurance business for $2.3B

  • PAI Partners is weighing a $1.6B sale of French grocery retailer Euro Ethnic Foods

  • UK vitamin company Vitabiotics is reviving plans to sell itself for up to $1.2B

  • Blackstone agreed to buy fire protection firm AI Fire from TruArc Partners for $1.1B, including debt

  • PE firms BC Partners, Permira, and TPG made initial offers for Italian biochemical firm Sicit Group, which could fetch a $1B valuation

  • H.I.G. Capital will take private IT and cloud company Converge Technology Solutions for $908M and merge it with PortCo Mainline Information Systems

  • $706M-listed business processing outsourcing firm Conduent is exploring a sale after receiving takeover interest

  • Pernod Ricard is exploring a sale of its G.H.Mumm champagne brand

  • A group led by C&S Wholesale Grocers are nearing a deal to acquire 350 Winn-Dixie grocery and liquor stores from German supermarket Aldi's US unit

VC

  • OpenAI is close to raising a $40B round at a $300B valuation from SoftBank

  • AI-powered defense startup Anduril Industries is in talks to raise $2.5B at a doubled $28B valuation in a round led by Founders Fund

  • Safe Superintelligence, an AI startup founded by OpenAI's ex-chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, is in talks to raise funding at a $20B valuation

  • 75F, a startup specializing in IoT and AI-driven commercial HVAC automation, raised a $45M Series B led by Net Zero Alliance

  • Salience Labs, a photonic solutions startup targeting connectivity for AI datacenter infrastructure, raised a $30M Series A led by ICM HPQC Fund and Applied Ventures

  • Lynx, a fintech for healthcare payments and administration, raised a $27M Series A led by Flare Capital Partners

  • Nuclear fuel startup Clean Core Thorium Energy raised a $15.5M seed round led by a Singaporean family office

  • InvestNext, a real estate investment management platform, raised a $15M Series B led by Beringea

  • Reservoir, a startup building infrastructure and APIs for token markets, raised a $14M Series A led by Union Square Ventures

  • AI data and financial analysis platform Model ML raised a $12M round led by YC and LocalGlobe

  • Edacious, a next-gen food lab, raised an $8.1M seed round led by Tin Shed Ventures

  • &AI, an AI agent for patent attorneys, raised a $6.5M seed round led by First Round Capital

  • UK online fashion marketplace Cult Mia raised a $5.5M seed round led by Fuel Ventures

  • PromptLayer, a startup building tools for non-technical people to drive AI app development, raised a $4.8M seed round led by ScOp Venture Partners

  • Natural hydrogen exploration startup Mantle8 raised a $3.5M seed round led by Kiko Ventures and Breakthrough Energy Ventures

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Shein is set to cut its valuation in a potential London IPO to $50B

  • Swedish fintech Klarna is planning a US IPO in April at a $15B valuation

  • Bill Ackman's Pershing Square revealed a $2.3B stake in Uber

  • Titan America, the US unit of Titan Cement International, raised $384M at a $3B valuation in a US IPO

  • Walgreens sold $300M worth of shares in drug distributor Cencora to cut its stake to 6%

  • PE-backed Northpointe Bancshares is seeking to raise $159M at a $595M valuation in the biggest US bank IPO in a decade

  • EQT-backed European vet group IVC Evidensia is exploring a London IPO 

  • Activist Elliott built a stake in UK oil giant BP

  • Elliott revealed a 9% stake in industrial-software company AspenTech and signaled opposition to the price of Emerson Electric's $7.2B tender offer

Debt

  • Bank of America agreed to buy a $9B residential mortgage loan portfolio from TD Bank

  • Saudi mining firm Maaden raised $1.25B in a debut Islamic bond sale

  • Banks led by Citigroup are seeking to sell a $755M leveraged loan used to finance Lakeview Farms' acquisition of Noosa Yoghurt to private credit firms

  • Strategic Value Partners-backed German packaging company Kloeckner Pentaplast reached a deal to extend the maturity of $310M of its riskiest debt 

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Bankrupt health system Prospect Medical won court approval to hand its Pennsylvania operations to a state-backed receiver to avert hospital closures

  • $287M of munis tied to American Dream mega mall in NJ missed an interest payment

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Endowments and foundations are joining the crypto rush with Bitcoin portfolios

  • Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there.